Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Tibet unrest looms in post-Dalai Lama era


BEIJING (Reuters) - A spell in hospital by the Dalai Lama highlights enormous complexities likely to arise when the 73-year-old Nobel Peace Prize winner does pass away.

Revered by Tibetan Buddhists as their spiritual leader, but loathed by China as a troublemaking separatist, the Dalai Lama smiled and waved to supporters as he left a hospital in India on Monday after being treated for four days for a stomach ailment.

But questions about the mortality of a man who supporters believe is actually the latest reincarnation of a long line of enlightened masters are now being raised.

There are also questions about who will succeed him as head of Tibet's government-in-exile, as well as the future of the Himalayan region itself.

Analysts say China, which rules Tibet, and the Dalai Lama's government-in-exile, which wants autonomy for the region, are likely to embark on bitter rival searches for a reincarnated successor -- as happened when other senior Tibetan Buddhist leaders have died in the past.

But they also predict widespread unrest in the region despite Beijing being likely to introduce draconian security measures.

The Dalai Lama's death and the search for his successor could create a rallying point at home for more than 5 million Tibetans, many of whom are unhappy with Communist rule.

"There will definitely be rioting. It'll be a lot bigger in scale than March 14," said Wang Lixiong, Chinese author of three books on Tibet, said, referring to unrest which spilled over into nearby Tibetan populated provinces in March and in ensuing week.

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